Population and Job Growth Bullish for Houston

By Robert Fiederlein, Vice President, Planning & Infrastructure

Population growth and closely related job growth are always key factors when considering the health of a local economy and more specifically its commercial real estate market.  It is rare for a region to lose population and/or jobs and to have a growing economy and healthy commercial real estate sector.  Recent historical data and projections by local experts indicate both strong population and job growth for the Houston area, boding well for a relatively strong economy and commercial real estate sector.

Recently released US Census Bureau data for 2024 indicate another strong year of population growth for Houston.  Houston was second nationally to New York City in terms of population gained, adding more than 43,000 residents in 2024.  Fulshear, a western suburb of Houston, was one of the fastest growing cities in the US on a percentage basis, growing by an astonishing 26.9% in 2024.

Earlier US Census data indicates that Harris County had the greatest population gain in the country for the period July 2023 through July 2024.  The Bureau estimates Harris County gained 105,000 residents, far outpacing second place Miami-Dade County at 64,000 residents.

Where population growth occurs job growth is sure to follow.  Recent data bears this out.  US Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate Houston added 57,800 jobs in 2024, in line with the 20-year average of 56,000 jobs.  The only remarkable aspect of the data was that it was down from the incredible numbers of 2021 to 2023 when job growth was far above average and likely not sustainable.

Projections for 2025 indicate another year of solid job growth.  The Greater Houston Partnership is predicting an addition of 71,000 jobs while UH’s Institute of Regional Forecasting projects a more modest 47,000 jobs for 2025.  Either are respectable numbers for job growth and indicate a generally bullish economic outlook for Houston and its commercial real estate sector.

However, a note of caution is in order.  Harris County and several other similarly situated counties such as Miami-Dade and Los Angeles, have seen a large proportion of its population growth come from international migration.  Shifting US immigration policies could slow up international migration and lead to slower population and job growth in Houston in 2025.  Data over the next year will indicate if this in fact occurs.